Alexander Wolfe at InfoWorld comments on competition in the FOSS market.

Remember the 1980s worries about how the "forking" of Unix could hurt that operating system's chances for adoption? That was nothing compared to the mess we've got today with Linux, where upwards of 300 distributions vie for the attention of computer users seeking an alternative to Windows.
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...no matter how many times open-source supporters tell me that what they're offering is so much better than the OSes peddled by Microsoft... There's no other way to put it: Linux is a forking mess.

Is 300 Linux distros too many, or is 300 indistiniquishable distros too many? Either way, the FOSS market will consolidate to survive. And as powerful FOSS firms try to dominate the market they'll squash the weaker ones. I'll wager that dominent FOSS firms will be those that: 1) detach themselves from the Free Software Foundation, 2) partner with proprietary firms on IP collaborations, 3) get it straight once and for all that innovation is the business of profit motive, not religious fanaticism.