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Thanks to Tony Healy, Senior Fellow at the Institute for Policy Innovation, for sending: Two reports and an Eric Raymond paper highlight the problem of the volunteerism that's supposed to drive open source.
Apparently two of the Linux distributions, KDE and Gnome, haven't had major updates since 2002, principally because of a lack of developers. Obviously this is not conducive to the plan to win the desktop from Windows.
Meanwhile ZD Net reports that Debian developers have rebelled after two release managers started receiving payment, while the rest were expected to continue working for free. This is both good and bad. It's bad that talented developers have been exploited, but it's good that they've started to question current arrangements in open source.
...Eric Raymond presents a detailed analysis of the prospects for Linux to win the desktop, concluding that historic upgrade patterns make 2008 a make or break year for Linux. Many of the problems he identifies essentially relate to the need for lots of work, which is the bete noir of the OSS development process. He identifies problems in supporting new multimedia formats, external devices and graphics cards and in providing seamless backwards compatibility.
Raymond also cites a 2004 Spolsky column that lambasts Microsoft's discarding of backwards compatibility, identifying that trend as a sign of problems that will hamper Vista's transition to 64 bit platforms. I concur with Spolsky's analysis, and Raymond's interpretation, but doubt Linux will be able to capitalise on Microsoft's decline. Its becoming apparent that FOSS is limited by its own weaknesses, rather than software patents or the DMCA, as some of its advocates often clamour on about.
FOSS opposition to software patents and the DMCA arises from successful leveraging by "IP firms" to gain and hold market share; thus the FOSS strategy is to commoditize competitors' business models by stripping them of their valuable assets. There may be ideological reasons for FOSS' dislike of software patents and the DMCA, however, these arguments basically boil down to "although we spout the importance of freedom, we insist you think like us."
FOSS should look at its own internal limitations as neither software patents nor the DMCA seem to be actually hurting it. They are not preventing FOSS from succeeding on the desktop, developing a viable Office Suite, attracting mainstream users or reaching other benchmarks- FOSS is.
posted by Noel Le @ 8:00 AM | Free Culture Movement
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