WIreless expert Andrew Seybold muses on the CTIA show. After enjoying the high growth rate for wireless services, especially in the consumer sector, he notes:

There is, however, a disconnect between content providers and wireless network operators. . . . Content folks don't seem to understand that while networks are offering faster and faster data speeds, they do not have unlimited bandwidth capacity. I talked with one senior executive from a major content company who holds the mistaken belief that there won't be a capacity problem with some of the newer technologies that are coming. Wireless network operators, while wanting to provide content to their customers, realize that bandwidth will always be an issue.

Dick Lynch, CTO of Verizon Wireless, expressed his concerns during the panel and talked frankly about tiered data offerings as opposed to flat-rate priced services. Tiering and off-network transmission of content (MediaFLO, DVB-H, etc.) can be used in combination to deliver a lot of content to our wireless devices, but there is not enough spectrum available to be able to provide unlimited bandwidth to all of us all of the time. This is one reason future releases of 3G technologies will include Quality of Service as well as other technologies to increase data speeds and to try to balance the demand for services versus available bandwidth.

The entire concept of delivering feature-rich content could become a sticky issue. As long as network operators are able to manage their networks and ensure that the available bandwidth is used as efficiently as possible, I don't foresee many problems. However, if content providers were to go directly to consumers without involving network operators, their customers could end up with user experiences that go from acceptable to dead-slow. It appears that many content providers do not understand that wireless is not simply another pipe to be stuffed with unlimited content.

The move toward an all-IP world and the convergence of wired and various types of wireless delivery networks will provide more flexibility and more bandwidth, at least on a local basis. However, it will not change the fact that spectrum is a finite resource and each network operator has only so much to use. We'll have to wait and see how companies with lots of big content and network operators with limited ability to move that content arrive at a consensus of what is possible. The next few years are going to be really interesting.

posted by James DeLong @ 9:48 AM | General

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