IPcentral Weblog: December 2005 Archives

December 2005 Archives

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12.30.2005

Peter Detkin Troll Data

At last, some data on patent litigation. This is from a presentation by Peter Detkin. He contests the claims that patent litigation is out of control and rising faster than other forms of litigation. Among other things, he notes that patent litigation is less common than trademark or copyright suits, and that it comprises only a tiny percentage of overall suits. He also notes that patent lawsuits per issued patent are declining. Also, what I think is more interesting, his data notes that the settlement rates for patent suits, although they rose steadily in the late 1990's, are now holding steady and are lower than for several other types of suits. He also notes that "trolls" are only about 2 percent of patent litigation.

It's not surprising that patent suits per issued patent are declining, given the flood of purely defensive patents (that is, there are more, way more patents, than before, many of which are not enforced). Nor am I surprised that the numbers of patent suits are not showing any alarming trends. I would be much more interested in a larger data set on settlements. And in measuring the percentage of suits by "trolls," does that include cases that settle or that license without ever a case being filed? I rather doubt it, and I'm not surprised that it would be hard to get those figures. But I think they would be quite interesting. After all, the concern is *not* that companies with dubious patents are suing the pants off everybody, but rather that they find they don't have to, because it is less expensive to settle than to litigate.

posted by Solveig Singleton @ 4:56 PM | Patents

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12.29.2005

Reports of Death of DRM Greatly Exaggerated

In the wake of Sony's DRM difficulties, more links:

Some older coverage, some slightly newer, and some newer still, further fallout.

One hears here and there the prediction that this whole business is the end of DRM. I find this prediction puzzling. Products have failed before, even spectacularly, and this is not the end of the line for development. I will offer a counter-prediction. This is not the end of the line for DRM. Indeed, such failures and what we learn from them may be the prelude to success. The next round of DRM will I strongly suspect be rather more thoroughly tested, and its impact on consumers more carefully considered--especially for things that consumers really care about, such as ease of use.

posted by Solveig Singleton @ 10:15 PM | DRM & Watermarks, etc.

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So Whatever Happened to P2P?

In the wake of Grokster, predictions were made: That technology would be chilled by the threat of liability, that there would be a flood of lawsuits, or alternately that the case would have little or no impact because of enforceability difficulties and the ease of maintaining more anonymous P2P networks.

Instead what seems to be happening is unlicensed P2P is closing its doors, and licensed P2P is growing. Perhaps blackmarkets aren't in the long run all that appealing to consumers; and more anonymous P2P networks aren't very attractive to developers and investors without the full force of venture capital, marketers, and credit markets behind them. That was the way I predicted it would go. But perhaps this is merely the first phase, and the next generation of unlicensed P2P will take a while to catch on.

My thesis about this whole IP problem is that lack of enforcement, the difficulty of getting enforcement except in a few token suits, is indeed a very, very difficult one that will require some sort of new institutional solutions. Solutions that take into account the global nature of the Internet, the enormous size of the communities it creates, the anonymous nature of communications over it, the relative clumsiness of after-the-fact of law-breaking enforcement and the difficulty of before-the-fact enforcement, technical or legal.

But if I am right in my initial predictions about Grokster, that the case would matter, then perhaps I am wrong about the importance of enforcement? Or perhaps enforcement difficulties will continue to drive the legal issues, but the business side will continue to be driven by factors outside the law.

I parted ways with some of my libertarian friends on some IP issues because I saw it as so difficult an issue that I no longer felt that the answer was something I could comfortably derive from first principles a priori. I've been trying to feel my way more slowly, with frequent reference to empirical reality. But this is a lot of work, and tonight I have eaten far too many truffles and far too much rare lamb.

posted by Solveig Singleton @ 9:57 PM | Internet: P2P, Search Engines...

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12.28.2005

A New Analog Hole Bill

The Analog Hole Bill, H.R. 4569, the Digital Transition Content Security Act of 2005, has been introduced in Congress.

Bill Rosenblatt's assessment of the legislation is well worth reading. I quote:

Continue reading A New Analog Hole Bill . . .

posted by Solveig Singleton @ 1:23 PM | Legislation and Legislators

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12.23.2005

MERRY CHRISTMAS & HAPPY NEW YEAR

SEE YOU IN 2006

posted by James DeLong @ 1:16 PM | General

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Broadband, Property Rights, Markets, Consumer Choice & Regulation

See here.

posted by James DeLong @ 10:37 AM | General

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Tech Review Clarification

An email exchange with the editor of MIT's Technology Review has improved my understanding of the magazine's new approach.

It will "explain [emerging technologies'] market potential and possible financing, otherwise it’s just hyperbole and gee-whizzery." But it will not cover markets and financing for established technologies.

This shifts my view by, like, 180 degrees, because in fact most business mags don't do a very good job covering the financial and business dimensions of new technologies, so there is an interesting niche to be filled.

posted by James DeLong @ 10:21 AM | Media: Video, Music...

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What to Do About Bad Patents . . .

. . . by Mark Lemley, Douglas Lichtman (a member of PFF's Academic Advisory Council) & Bhavan Sampat is available at SSRN. They propose a series of reforms that would "allow the Patent Office to focus its resources on patents that might actually matter, and it would also both reduce the incentive to file patents of questionable validity and reduce the harm caused by such patents in any event."

The proposed reforms are:

"[W]eaken the presumption of validity that today attaches to all issued patents. The modern strong presumption simply does not reflect the reality of patent review";
"[B]ecause legitimate inventors need as much certainty as the law can provide, we would give applicants the option of earning a presumption of validity by paying for a thorough examination of their inventions";

"[B]ecause competitors also have useful information about which patents worry them and which do not, we support instituting a post-grant opposition system".

Link from I/P Updates.

posted by James DeLong @ 9:34 AM | Patents

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12.22.2005

Economics of Electronic Gaming

Kent Lassman discusses the fascinating complexities of the world of electronic gaming, including the growing market in virtual goods.

posted by James DeLong @ 2:49 PM | Games

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Politics & the Electronic Gaming Industry . . .

. . . as interpreted by Ray Gifford:

I suspect that gaming is growing up, as Congress and regulators notice there is a mass of cash to raid and content to regulate. Of course, the two factors are not unrelated — demanding protection money not to mess with their content is a time honored Washington tradition. There’s a good article for you—the First Amendment as a RICO statute against the government.

In accord with my penchant for 19th Century railroad analogies, some day I am going to write up the story of Credit Mobilier as a tale of political extortion rather than business bribery.

posted by James DeLong @ 2:08 PM | Games

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12.22.2005

Software Puzzlement (cont.)

posted by James DeLong @ 11:51 AM | Software

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