The U.S. and the EU need to continue to progress as nations built on knowledge-based industries and not be "backward-looking, protectionist, and isolationist" when it comes to trade. That was the message that EU Trade Commissioner Peter Mandelson brought to the National Press Club Tuesday. As an NPC member fascinated by trade issues I was happy to attend, yet I learned that apparently trade issues aren't that popular in this town, as they had moved the luncheon to a much smaller room and I was able to sit at the front table. But we need to be more focused on trade, as it has direct impact on IPcentral issues such as intellectual property protection but also on broader PFF issues such as e-commerce, communications and economic growth. And the clock is ticking -- the Hong Kong ministerial on the Doha round is in December, and according to Mandelson, the World Bank predicts that if Doha leads to the reduction in tariffs and other barriers currently being targeted, it could grow the world economy by $100-$250 billion annually.
That's a big enough growth in the pie to let everyone have a larger slice. But Jim's favorite analogy, the Prisoner's Dilemma, certainly applies here as well, as every nation wants everyone else to give something up but each nation also wants to hold on to that one piece of protectionism it views as vital.
Point of disclosure: I am a huge trade hawk. I cheered NAFTA, a Clinton victory, and was dismayed when Clinton failed to get trade promotion authority (fast-track). I cheered again when Bush secured it (a change in letter from D to R was what was needed there, as many R's wouldn't give that power to a D), and I cheered CAFTA. That latter treaty is so modest, and we give up so little compared to the gains (including more stringent intellectual property provisions) yet it was so contentious that the House leadership had to keep the vote open for hours and it still passed by only one vote. I find this terribly alarming, so I asked Mandelson about it. (That is, I submitted my question on a card and was fortunate enough to have the moderator read it to Mandelson.)
Mandelson, by way of background, is a communications king. After a brief career in elective politics, he went into TV journalism in the U.K. before being Tony Blair's communications czar as the latter first made his case for being prime minister. Mandelson is no stranger to controversy, and I'll confess I was hoping my question would bring out the pol in him, not the diplomat. But his prepared remarks had been nothing but diplomatic, making no reference to the apparent decline in support for free trade in the U.S.
The pol won out. Taking the microphone, he began "I'm going to be frank, why shouldn't I be?" He then began to light into his U.S. hosts, noting their own prosperity came through free trade. "To cave in to the more short-sighted, the more narrow-minded, the more inward-looking" sectors, he said, is the equivalent of "pulling a blanket over our heads... that's a cul-de-sac, a dead end."
That wasn't enough for the Labour Party loyalist. "It's a disappointment to see so many friends I have in the Democrat Party turning their backs on free trade." He said these politicians are "running to the hills... and frankly, they're taking a lot of Republicans with them."
Not only are too many U.S. politicians too timid to support trade agreements, he said, but they are actively promoting further protectionist actions, such as the massive subsidies in the last farm bill. "The U.S. will have to reshape domestic farm programs," he said, which will be part of "an international reshaping of labor."
As part of this reshaping, all nations must get over the "fear of China factor" and recognize "there is no long-term future in resisting this change." He said he is actively pursuing Brazil and India as partners; I'm sure many in the audience knew these two nations are among the largest spoilers when it comes to international trade agreements in general and the Doha round in particular.
The U.S. and the EU are the natural leaders in this process, Mandelson said, and other nations are encouraging the two giants to work out compromises. At the same time, he said, there is paranoia whenever there is transatlantic cooperation, for fear the rest of the world will be a victim of the results.
But he said the EU's 25 member states are united in their belief that a successful Doha round would be the "biggest possible injector of confidence in the global economy." "Open markets are a precondition for growth."
I wish there had been a lot more people in that room.
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